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The Opportunities and Challenges in Credit Scoring with Big Data

The Opportunities and Challenges in Credit Scoring with Big Data

Within the past few decades, the banking institutions have collected plenty of data in order to describe the default behaviour of their clientele. Good examples of them are historical data about a person’s date of birth, their income, gender, status of employment etc. the whole of this data has all been nicely stored into several huge databases or data warehouses (for e.g. relational).

And on top of all this, the banks have accumulated several business experiences about their crediting products. For instance, a lot of credit experts have done a pretty swell job at discriminating between low risk and high risk mortgages with the use of their business mortgages, thereby making use of their business expertise only. It is now the goal of all credit scoring to conduct a detailed analysis of both the sources of data into a more detailed perspective with then come up with a statistically based decision model, which allows to score future credit applications and then ultimately make a decision about which ones to accept and which to reject.

With the surfacing of Big Data it has created both chances as well as challenges to conduct credit scoring. Big Data is often categorised in terms of its four Vs viz: Variety, Velocity, Volume, and Veracity. To further illustrate this, let us in short focus into some key sources or processes, which will generate Big Data.  

The traditional sources of Big Data are usually large scale transactional enterprise systems like OLTP (online Transactional Processing), ERP (Enterprise Resource Processing) and CRM (Customer Relationship Management) applications. The classical credit is generally constructed using the data extracted from these traditional transactional systems.

However, the online graphing is more recent example. Simply think about the all the major social media networks like, Weibo, Wechat, Facebook, Twitter etc. All of these networks together capture the information about close to two billion people relating to their friends preferences and their other behaviours, thereby leaving behind a huge trail of digital footprint in the form of data.

Also think about the IoT (the internet of things) or the emergence of the sensor enable ecosystems which is going to link the various objects (for e.g. cars, homes etc) with each other as well as with other humans. And finally, we get to see a more and more transparent or public data such as the data about weather, maps, traffic and the macro-economy. It is a clear indication that all of these new sources of generating data will offer a tremendous potential for building better credit scoring models.

The main challenges:

The above mentioned data generating processes can all be categorised in terms of their sheer volume of the data which is being created. Thus, it is evident that this poses to be a serious challenge in order to set up a scalable storage architecture which when combined with a distributed approach to manipulate data and query will be difficult.

Big Data also comes with a lot of variety or in several other formats. The traditional data or the structured data, such as customer name, their birth date etc are usually more and more complementary with unstructured data such as images, tweets, emails, sensor data, Facebook pages, GPS data etc. While the former may be easily stored in traditional databases, the latter needs to be accommodated with the use of appropriate database technology thus, facilitating the storage, querying and manipulation of each of these types of unstructured data. Also it requires a lot of effort since it is thought to be that at least 80 percent of all data in unstructured.

The speed at which data is generated is the velocity factor and it is at that perfect speed that it must be analysed and stored. You can imagine the streaming applications like on-line trading platforms, SMS messages, YouTube, about the credit card swipes and other phone calls, these are all examples of high velocity data and form an important concern.

Veracity which is the quality or trustworthiness of the data, is yet another factor that needs to be considered. However, sadly more data does not automatically indicate better data, so the quality of data being generated must be monitored closely and guaranteed.

So, in closing thoughts as the velocity, veracity, volume, and variety keeps growing, so will the new opportunities to build better credit scoring models.     

Looking for credit risk modelling courses? Take up our credit risk management course online or classroom-based from DexLab Analytics and get your career moving….

 

 

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Understanding Credit Risk Management With Modelling and Validation

The term credit risk encompasses all types of default risks that are associated with different financial instruments such as – (like for example, a debtor has not met his or her legal duties according to the debt contract), migrating risk (arises from adverse movements internally or externally with the ratings) and country risks (the debtor cannot pay as per the duties because of measure or events taken by political or monetary agencies of the country itself).

In compliance to Basel Regulations, most banks choose to develop their own credit risk measuring parameters: Probability Default (PD), Loss Given Default (LGD), and Exposure at Default (EAD). Several MNCs have gathered solid experience by developing models for the Internal Ratings Based Approach (IRBA) for different clients.

For implementation of these Credit Risk Assessment parameters, we need the following data analytics and visualization tools:

  • SAS Credit Risk modelling for banking
  • SA Enterprise miner and SAS Credit scoring
  • Matlab
Default Probability Curve for Each Counterparty
                                                                               Image Source: businessdecision.be

Credit and counterparty risk validating:

The models that are built for the computation of risks must be revalidated on a regular basis.

On one hand, the second pillar of the Basel regulations implies that supervisors should check that their risk models are working consistently for optimum results. On the other hand, recent crises have drawn the focus of the stakeholders of the banks (business, CRO) to a higher interest on the models.

The process of validation includes in a review of the development process and all the related aspects of model implementation. The process can be divided into two parts:

  1. Quality control is mainly concerned about the ongoing monitoring of the model in use, the quality of the input variables, judgemental decisions and the resulting output models.
  2. Quantitatively with backresting, we can statistically compare the periodic risk parameters with its actual outcomes.

In the context of credit risk, the process of validation is concerned with three main parameters they are – probability of default (PD), exposure at default (EAD) and the loss given default (LGD). And for all of the above mentioned three a complete backresting is done at the three levels:

  1. Discriminatory power: this is the ability of the model to differentiate between defaults, non-defaults, or between high-losses and low losses.
  2. Power of prediction: this is a checking using comparison between defaults and non-defaults, or between high losses and low losses.
  3. Stability: is the portfolio change between the time when the model was first developed and now.

In the below three X three matrix (parameter X level) each and every component has had one or more standardized tests to process. With the right Credit Risk Modelling training an individual can implement all the above tests and provide for the needful reporting of the same.

In terms of the counterparty credit risk context, one must consider the uncertainty of exposure and the bilateral nature of the risk associated. Hence, exposure at the default can be replaced by the EPE (expected positive exposure) and EEPE (effective expected positive exposure).

The test include comparing the observed P&L with the EEPE (make sure the violations are moderate and the pass rate does not exceed a predetermined level for instance 70%).

Deep Learning and AI using Python

For better visualization, here is an example of the same:

For better visualization, here is an example of the same:
                                                                  Image Source: businessdecision.be

Risk models:

As per the National Bank of Belgium, which is he Belgian regulator (NBB), it insists that appropriate conservative measures should be incorporated to compensate for the discrepancies of the value and risk models. For example, as per the NBB requisites there should be an assessment of the model risk, which is based on the inventory of:

  1. The risk that model covers, along with an assessment of the quality of the results calculated by the model (maturity of the model, adequacy of assumptions made, weaknesses and limitations of the model, etc) and the improvements that are planned to be included over time.
  2. The risks that are not yet be covered by the model along with an assessment of the materiality of these risks and their process of handling the same.
  3. The elements that are covered by a general modelling method along with the entities that are covered by a more simplified method, or the ones that are not covered at all.

A quality Credit Risk Management Course can provide you with the necessary functional and technical knowledge to assess the model risk.

 

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What Sets Apart Data Science from Big Data and Data Analytics

What Sets Apart Data Science from Big Data and Data Analytics

Today is a time when omnipresent has a whole new definition. We no longer think about the almighty, omnipotent and omnipresent God when we speak about being everywhere. Nowadays we mostly mean data when we hear the term “present everywhere”. The amount of digital data that populates the earth today is growing at a tremendous rate, doubling over every two years and transforming the way we live.

As per IBM, an astounding amount of 2.5 Billion gigabytes of data is generated every day since the year 2012. Another revelation made by an article published in the Forbes magazine stated that data is growing faster than ever before today, and by the year 2020 almost 1.7 megabytes of new information will be created every second by every human being on this earth. And that is why it is imperative to know the fundamental basics of this field as clearly this is where our future lies.

In this article, we will know the main differentiating factors between data science, Big Data analysis and data analytics. We will discuss in detail about the points such as what they are, where they are used, and the skills one needs to be a professional in these fields, and finally the prospect of salary in each case.

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First off we start with the understanding of what these subjects are:

What is data science?

Data science involves dealing with unstructured and structured data. It is a field that consists of everything that relates to cleansing of data, preparation and analysis. It can be defined as the combination of mathematics, analytics, statistics, programming, capture of data and problem solving. And all of that in the most ingenious ways with an amazing ability to look at things from a unique perspective. They professionals involved with this field should be proficient in data preparation, cleansing, and alignment of data.

To put it simply, this is the umbrella of techniques which is used to extract insights and information from the data.

What do we mean by Big Data?

As the name suggests, Big Data is nothing but a mammoth amount of data. This is so huge that it cannot be processed effectively with the existing traditional applications. The processing of Big Data starts with working with raw data that is not very well aggregated and is almost impossible to store in the memory of only one single computer.

It is now a popular buzzword filling up the job portals with vacancies. And is used to denote basically a large number of data, both structured and unstructured. It inundates a business on a daily basis. It is a prime source of information that can be used to take better decisions and proper strategic business moves.

As per Gartner, Big Data can be defined as high velocity, high volume and high variety information assets which demand cost efficient, innovative forms of information processing that enable improved insight, better decision making, and a procedural automation.

Thus a Big Data certification, can help you bag the best paying jobs in the market.

Understanding data analytics:

Data Analytics is the science of assessing raw data with the purpose of drawing actionable insights from the same.

It basically involves application of algorithms in a mechanical and systematic process to gather information. For instance, it may involve a task like running through a large number of data sets to look for comprehensible correlations between one another.

The main focus for data analytics is concentrated on interference, which is the procedure for deriving conclusions which are mainly based on what the researchers already are aware of.

Where can I apply my data science skills?

  • On internet searching: search engines use data science algorithms
  • For digital ads: data science algorithms is an important aspect for the whole digital marketing spectrum.
  • Recommender systems: finding relevant products from a list of billions available can be found easily. Several companies and ecommerce retailers use data to implement this system.

Big Data applicability:

The following sectors use Big Data application:

  • Customer analysis
  • Fraud analytics
  • Compliance analytics
  • Financial services, credit risk modelling
  • Operational analytics
  • Communication systems
  • Retailers

Data analysis scope and application:

  1. Healthcare sector for efficient service and reduction of cost pressure
  2. Travel sector for optimizing buying experience
  3. Gaming industry for deriving insights about likes and dislikes of gamers
  4. For management of energy, with smart grid management, energy optimization distribution and also used by utility companies.

Here is an infographic that further describes all there is to know about these trending, job-hungry sectors that are growing at a tremendous rate:

Don’t Be Bamboozled by The Data-Jargon: Difference in Detween The Data Fields

 

Now that you know what the path to career success, looks like stop waiting and get a R Analytics Certification today.

 

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