Credit Risk Modelling Archives - Page 5 of 6 - DexLab Analytics | Big Data Hadoop SAS R Analytics Predictive Modeling & Excel VBA

The Opportunities and Challenges in Credit Scoring with Big Data

The Opportunities and Challenges in Credit Scoring with Big Data

Within the past few decades, the banking institutions have collected plenty of data in order to describe the default behaviour of their clientele. Good examples of them are historical data about a person’s date of birth, their income, gender, status of employment etc. the whole of this data has all been nicely stored into several huge databases or data warehouses (for e.g. relational).

And on top of all this, the banks have accumulated several business experiences about their crediting products. For instance, a lot of credit experts have done a pretty swell job at discriminating between low risk and high risk mortgages with the use of their business mortgages, thereby making use of their business expertise only. It is now the goal of all credit scoring to conduct a detailed analysis of both the sources of data into a more detailed perspective with then come up with a statistically based decision model, which allows to score future credit applications and then ultimately make a decision about which ones to accept and which to reject.

With the surfacing of Big Data it has created both chances as well as challenges to conduct credit scoring. Big Data is often categorised in terms of its four Vs viz: Variety, Velocity, Volume, and Veracity. To further illustrate this, let us in short focus into some key sources or processes, which will generate Big Data.  

The traditional sources of Big Data are usually large scale transactional enterprise systems like OLTP (online Transactional Processing), ERP (Enterprise Resource Processing) and CRM (Customer Relationship Management) applications. The classical credit is generally constructed using the data extracted from these traditional transactional systems.

However, the online graphing is more recent example. Simply think about the all the major social media networks like, Weibo, Wechat, Facebook, Twitter etc. All of these networks together capture the information about close to two billion people relating to their friends preferences and their other behaviours, thereby leaving behind a huge trail of digital footprint in the form of data.

Also think about the IoT (the internet of things) or the emergence of the sensor enable ecosystems which is going to link the various objects (for e.g. cars, homes etc) with each other as well as with other humans. And finally, we get to see a more and more transparent or public data such as the data about weather, maps, traffic and the macro-economy. It is a clear indication that all of these new sources of generating data will offer a tremendous potential for building better credit scoring models.

The main challenges:

The above mentioned data generating processes can all be categorised in terms of their sheer volume of the data which is being created. Thus, it is evident that this poses to be a serious challenge in order to set up a scalable storage architecture which when combined with a distributed approach to manipulate data and query will be difficult.

Big Data also comes with a lot of variety or in several other formats. The traditional data or the structured data, such as customer name, their birth date etc are usually more and more complementary with unstructured data such as images, tweets, emails, sensor data, Facebook pages, GPS data etc. While the former may be easily stored in traditional databases, the latter needs to be accommodated with the use of appropriate database technology thus, facilitating the storage, querying and manipulation of each of these types of unstructured data. Also it requires a lot of effort since it is thought to be that at least 80 percent of all data in unstructured.

The speed at which data is generated is the velocity factor and it is at that perfect speed that it must be analysed and stored. You can imagine the streaming applications like on-line trading platforms, SMS messages, YouTube, about the credit card swipes and other phone calls, these are all examples of high velocity data and form an important concern.

Veracity which is the quality or trustworthiness of the data, is yet another factor that needs to be considered. However, sadly more data does not automatically indicate better data, so the quality of data being generated must be monitored closely and guaranteed.

So, in closing thoughts as the velocity, veracity, volume, and variety keeps growing, so will the new opportunities to build better credit scoring models.     

Looking for credit risk modelling courses? Take up our credit risk management course online or classroom-based from DexLab Analytics and get your career moving….

 

 

Interested in a career in Data Analyst?

To learn more about Data Analyst with Advanced excel course – Enrol Now.
To learn more about Data Analyst with R Course – Enrol Now.
To learn more about Big Data Course – Enrol Now.

To learn more about Machine Learning Using Python and Spark – Enrol Now.
To learn more about Data Analyst with SAS Course – Enrol Now.
To learn more about Data Analyst with Apache Spark Course – Enrol Now.
To learn more about Data Analyst with Market Risk Analytics and Modelling Course – Enrol Now.

The Olympics Turn To Data Analysis: Canadian Olympic Committee Deals In With Analytics

The Canadian Olympic company has recently teamed up with a major Big Data Company to ramp up the analytics for the benefit of the athletes.

 
The Olympics Turn To Data Analysis: Canadian Olympic Committee Deals In With Analytics
 

Recently the COC made an announcement about an eight-year, cash and services sponsorship deal with SAS, which is an analytics software with a brag-worthy client list from varied industries, like universities, hotels, banks casinos and much more.

Continue reading “The Olympics Turn To Data Analysis: Canadian Olympic Committee Deals In With Analytics”

Understanding Credit Risk Management With Modelling and Validation

The term credit risk encompasses all types of default risks that are associated with different financial instruments such as – (like for example, a debtor has not met his or her legal duties according to the debt contract), migrating risk (arises from adverse movements internally or externally with the ratings) and country risks (the debtor cannot pay as per the duties because of measure or events taken by political or monetary agencies of the country itself).

In compliance to Basel Regulations, most banks choose to develop their own credit risk measuring parameters: Probability Default (PD), Loss Given Default (LGD), and Exposure at Default (EAD). Several MNCs have gathered solid experience by developing models for the Internal Ratings Based Approach (IRBA) for different clients.

For implementation of these Credit Risk Assessment parameters, we need the following data analytics and visualization tools:

  • SAS Credit Risk modelling for banking
  • SA Enterprise miner and SAS Credit scoring
  • Matlab
Default Probability Curve for Each Counterparty
                                                                               Image Source: businessdecision.be

Credit and counterparty risk validating:

The models that are built for the computation of risks must be revalidated on a regular basis.

On one hand, the second pillar of the Basel regulations implies that supervisors should check that their risk models are working consistently for optimum results. On the other hand, recent crises have drawn the focus of the stakeholders of the banks (business, CRO) to a higher interest on the models.

The process of validation includes in a review of the development process and all the related aspects of model implementation. The process can be divided into two parts:

  1. Quality control is mainly concerned about the ongoing monitoring of the model in use, the quality of the input variables, judgemental decisions and the resulting output models.
  2. Quantitatively with backresting, we can statistically compare the periodic risk parameters with its actual outcomes.

In the context of credit risk, the process of validation is concerned with three main parameters they are – probability of default (PD), exposure at default (EAD) and the loss given default (LGD). And for all of the above mentioned three a complete backresting is done at the three levels:

  1. Discriminatory power: this is the ability of the model to differentiate between defaults, non-defaults, or between high-losses and low losses.
  2. Power of prediction: this is a checking using comparison between defaults and non-defaults, or between high losses and low losses.
  3. Stability: is the portfolio change between the time when the model was first developed and now.

In the below three X three matrix (parameter X level) each and every component has had one or more standardized tests to process. With the right Credit Risk Modelling training an individual can implement all the above tests and provide for the needful reporting of the same.

In terms of the counterparty credit risk context, one must consider the uncertainty of exposure and the bilateral nature of the risk associated. Hence, exposure at the default can be replaced by the EPE (expected positive exposure) and EEPE (effective expected positive exposure).

The test include comparing the observed P&L with the EEPE (make sure the violations are moderate and the pass rate does not exceed a predetermined level for instance 70%).

Deep Learning and AI using Python

For better visualization, here is an example of the same:

For better visualization, here is an example of the same:
                                                                  Image Source: businessdecision.be

Risk models:

As per the National Bank of Belgium, which is he Belgian regulator (NBB), it insists that appropriate conservative measures should be incorporated to compensate for the discrepancies of the value and risk models. For example, as per the NBB requisites there should be an assessment of the model risk, which is based on the inventory of:

  1. The risk that model covers, along with an assessment of the quality of the results calculated by the model (maturity of the model, adequacy of assumptions made, weaknesses and limitations of the model, etc) and the improvements that are planned to be included over time.
  2. The risks that are not yet be covered by the model along with an assessment of the materiality of these risks and their process of handling the same.
  3. The elements that are covered by a general modelling method along with the entities that are covered by a more simplified method, or the ones that are not covered at all.

A quality Credit Risk Management Course can provide you with the necessary functional and technical knowledge to assess the model risk.

 

Interested in a career in Data Analyst?

To learn more about Data Analyst with Advanced excel course – Enrol Now.
To learn more about Data Analyst with R Course – Enrol Now.
To learn more about Big Data Course – Enrol Now.

To learn more about Machine Learning Using Python and Spark – Enrol Now.
To learn more about Data Analyst with SAS Course – Enrol Now.
To learn more about Data Analyst with Apache Spark Course – Enrol Now.
To learn more about Data Analyst with Market Risk Analytics and Modelling Course – Enrol Now.

Join Us at a Free Live Demo Session Today, On Credit Risk Modelling With SAS

Learning is almost close to being free with the ascent of the internet era. People keen on learning new things need not go across the world or even migrate to different cities. They can simply open their browser and gather as much knowledge as they want online while watching tutorials, reading articles and guides and watching free demo sessions. This convenience is now available for the challenging field of data analytics as well, as DexLab Analytics the premiere data analytics training institute in the country is offering a free live demo session on Credit Risk Modelling using SAS this Saturday at 5 PM.

 

Join us at a free live demo session today, on Credit Risk Modelling with SAS

 

To join our demo session all you have to do is register for the same with an email directly to us at hello@dexlabanalytics.com or even drop in a line showing interested at our contact us form. Then all that is left to do is to make yourself comfortable with keen ears and eyes at 5 PM sharp in front of the computer screen. The demo session is to be held today (at 15/10/2016) live, online and will be completely free. Continue reading “Join Us at a Free Live Demo Session Today, On Credit Risk Modelling With SAS”

Introduction To Credit Score Cards: Its Use in Crisis

The incident we are about to describe took place during 2009 circa at a party, a year in which the world was going through one of its worst financial crisis for the longest time. Every average bloke on the streets was aware of terms like mortgage-backed securities (MBS), sub-prime lending and credit crisis, after all these are the reasons for his plight.

 

Introduction To Credit Score Cards: Its Use in Crisis

 

But at this party we are speaking of, I was fortunate enough to meet with an informed and highly compassionate elderly woman, and after a few minutes of discussion the topic came to what we here do for a living. She wanted to know more about credit scorecard systems. As I further went on to explain the details of how this system works, her expression changed from being just plainly curious to angry to pained. Continue reading “Introduction To Credit Score Cards: Its Use in Crisis”

Credit Risk Managers Must use Big Data in These Three Ways

Credit risk managers must use Big Data in these three ways

While the developed nations are slowly recovering from the financial chaos of post depression, the credit risk managers are facing growing default rates as household debts are increasing with almost no relief in sight. As per the reports of the International Finance which stated at the end of 2015 that household debts have risen to by USD 7.7 trillion since the year 2007. It now stands at the heart stopping amount of a massive USD 44 trillion and the amount of debts increased in the emerging markets is of USD 6.2 trillion. The household loans of emerging economies calculating as per adult rose by 120 percent over the period and are now summed up to USD 3000.

To thrive in this market of increasing debts, credit risk managers must consider innovative methods to keep accuracy in check and decrease default rates. A good solution to this can be applying the data analytics to Big Data. Continue reading “Credit Risk Managers Must use Big Data in These Three Ways”

Facts about Remittances for Credits and Rent Losses – Part 1

Facts about Remittances for Credits and Rent Losses – Part 1

 

A valuation store, built up and kept up by charges against the bank’s working salary, is what we know by The Allowances for Loans and Lease Losses (ALLL). As an assessment measure, it is an evaluation of invalid sums that is utilized to decrease the book estimation of credits and rents to the sum that is relied upon to be gathered. The ALLL frames a piece of Capital of Tier-2; henceforth it is kept up to cover misfortunes that are plausible and admirable at the time of assessment. It does not work as a support against all conceivable future misfortunes; that assurance is given by the Capital of Tier 1. For building up and keeping up a satisfactory payment, a bank ought to:

Continue reading “Facts about Remittances for Credits and Rent Losses – Part 1”

Banking Business And Banking Instruments- Part 2

Banking Business And Banking Instruments- Part 2
 

In the last blog we had discussed three types of banking instruments, namely the Current account, Savings account and Certificate of Deposit.  In this blog we discuss credit cards. Credit cards are the most expensive and profitable type of loan that a bank can extend. A credit card is a card issued by a financial institution giving the holder an option to borrow funds, usually at points of scales. Credit cards charge interest and are primarily used for short-term financing. Interest usually begins one month after a purchase is made and borrowing limit is pre-set according to the individual’s credit rating. Credit cards have higher interest rates than most consumer loans, or lines of credit.

Continue reading “Banking Business And Banking Instruments- Part 2”

BASEL Accords: A Basic Understanding

BASEL accords are a set of agreements set by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision(BCBS) which provides recommendations on banking regulations in regard to credit risk, market risk and operational risk. The purpose of the accords is to ensure that the financial institutions have adequate capital on account to meet obligations and absorb unexpected loss. There are three versions of BASEL: BASEL-I, II and III. BASEL-I is relatively more simple compared to the later versions, in the sense that, its scope of definition of risk was limited only to credit risk. BASEL-II is a more advanced version of its predecessor in defining the scope and domain of banking risk. It points out three main areas of risks: Minimum Capital Requirements, Supervisory Review and market discipline. These are called the three pillars of BASEL. The focus of BASEL-II has been to strengthen the international banking requirements as well as to supervise and enforce these requirements. BASEL-III is the recent most version of the BASEL accords and most banks seeks compliance with it by the end of 2018. BASEL-III discusses the three pillars professed by BASEL-II in a more detailed manner by increasing the scope of the three pillars. In this blog we will discuss the three pillars of BASEL accords and the opportunities they generate in the analytics industry.

Pillar 1: Minimum Capital Requirements

BASEL-II emphasises that banks must have adequate capital to cover the three areas of risk exposure: Credit risk, Operational Risk and Market Risk. Credit risks are those which arise from the default on the loans made to obligors. The default occurs when obligors fail to make required payments. Operational Risk arises from failed internal processes. It includes legal risk, but excludes strategic and reputation risk. Market risks arise from losses on and off balance sheet position arising from movement in market prices. Statistical models are extensively used to develop predictive models for identifying the credit, operational and market risks. Probability of Default (PD), Loss given Default (LGD) and Exposure at Default (EAD) models are built to identify the inherent credit risk in the bank’s portfolio. Market risks are modelled using Value at Risk (VaR) and Economic Capital (ECAP) models. Building these models require a sound understanding of (i) the relevant business for which model development is done (ii) statistical techniques like Logistic Regression, Linear Regression, Time Series Analysis (both basic and advanced) (iii) segmentation techniques like CHAID, CART, Cluster analysis etc. and (iv) a very good understanding of soft wares like SAS, EXCEL and R.

Pillar 2: Supervisory Review

It provides with a framework to deal with risk related to systemic, pension, strategic, concentration, liquidity, legal and reputational. The accord combines all these risks under the title of residual risk. The aim of this pillar is to give better tools to the regulators. Black-Scholes-Merton of option pricing forms the basis of modeling for most of these risks (especially systemic risks). In order to develop this type of model you are required to have sound knowledge in terms of simulation Stochastic processes.

Pillar 3: Market Discipline

Market discipline supplements regulation as sharing of information facilitates assessment of the bank by others, including investors, analysts, customers, other banks, and rating agencies, which leads to good corporate governance. The aim of Pillar 3 is to allow market discipline to operate by requiring institutions to disclose details on the scope of application, capital, risk exposures, risk assessment processes, and the capital adequacy of the institution. It must be consistent with how the senior management, including the board, assess and manage the risks of the institution.

Banks require being compliant with all the three pillars of BASEL accords for prudently managing their risks. Hence Systematically Important Financial Institutions like Wells Fargo, HSBC, American Express, Bank of New York Mellon etc. look for resources with sound understanding of these pillars and the statistical knowledge required building models for their captive risk management process. Managing banking risk is perhaps the safest business to invest in as the extent of risks and regulatory compliance for banks are increasing overtime. Over the next few blogs we will try to understand the capital structures of banks and development of different BASEL compliant models for different pillars and capital tiers of banks.

Call us to know more