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Autocorrelation- Time Series – Part 3

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Autocorrelation is a special case of correlation. It refers to the relationship between successive values of the same variables .For example if an individual with a consumption pattern:-

spends too much in period 1 then he will try to compensate that in period 2 by spending less than usual. This would mean that Ut is correlated with Ut+1 . If it is plotted the graph will appear as follows :

Positive Autocorrelation : When the previous year’s error effects the current year’s error in such a way that when a graph is plotted the line moves in the upward direction or when the error of the time t-1 carries over into a positive error in the following period it is called a positive autocorrelation.
Negative Autocorrelation : When the previous year’s error effects the current year’s error in such a way that when a graph is plotted the line moves in the downward direction or when the error of the time t-1 carries over into a negative error in the following period it is called a negative autocorrelation.

Now there are two ways of detecting the presence of autocorrelation
By plotting a scatter plot of the estimated residual (ei) against one another i.e. present value of residuals are plotted against its own past value.

If most of the points fall in the 1st and the 3rd quadrants , autocorrelation will be positive since the products are positive.

If most of the points fall in the 2nd and 4th quadrant , the autocorrelation will be negative, because the products are negative.
By plotting ei against time : The successive values of ei are plotted against time would indicate the possible presence of autocorrelation .If e’s in successive time show a regular time pattern, then there is autocorrelation in the function. The autocorrelation is said to be negative if successive values of ei changes sign frequently.
First Order of Autocorrelation (AR-1)
When t-1 time period’s error affects the error of time period t (current time period), then it is called first order of autocorrelation.
AR-1 coefficient p takes values between +1 and -1
The size of this coefficient p determines the strength of autocorrelation.
A positive value of p indicates a positive autocorrelation.
A negative value of p indicates a negative autocorrelation
In case if p = 0, then this indicates there is no autocorrelation.
To explain the error term in any particular period t, we use the following formula:-

Where Vt= a random term which fulfills all the usual assumptions of OLS
How to find the value of p?

One can estimate the value of ρ by applying the following formula :-

Statistical Application in R & Python: Normal Probability Distribution

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Statistical Application in R & Python: Normal Probability Distribution

Gauss, the famous French Mathematician is responsible for developing one of the most significant distributions in all of statistics, i.e. – The Normal Distribution. Please refer to the blog on Central Limit Theorem: www.dexlabanalytics.com/blog/the-almighty-central-limit-theorem. It will help you fully grasp the significance of the Normal Distribution. However, if you want to revisit our series of blogs by following it from the start, you can reach STATISTICAL APPLICATION IN R & PYTHON: CHAPTER 1 – MEASURE OF CENTRAL TENDENCY right now!

Essentially, the Normal Distribution provides “approximations” to most other distributions such as the Binomial, Poisson, Gamma, Exponential, etc. This is to say as sample sizes get statistically large enough, most distributions approximate into a normal shaped curve.

Every distribution has important features known as its “parameters”. Normal distribution has two parameters. These are Mean ( ) and Variance (σ²). The normal distribution has a bell-shaped curve, where the probability of likelihood peaks at its mean in the middle.

The Normal Distribution has vast practical applications in the field of Business, Finance, Medicine, and Physics and so on. Things like weights, heights, IQ scores follow the Normal Distribution.

Normal Distribution, Gaussian distribution, is a continuous probability distribution and is defined by the Probability Density Function (PDF).

Where,

Application:

Assume that the credit score fits a Normal Distribution.

Suppose Mr. Arjun’s last 10 month’s credit score are:

789, 635, 739, 687, 724, 810, 817, 735, 819, 820

What is the probability that the percentage of credit score will 825 or more in the 11th month?

Months

Credit Score

January

789

February

635

March

739

April

687

May

724

June

810

July

817

August

735

September

819

October

820

 

Calculating Normal Distribution in R:

If we go to calculate Normal Probability Distribution in R, we can predict that the probability of the 11th month credit score will be 825 or greater than that is 14.60%, whereas in another case, the probability of the 11th month credit score will be 825 or less than that is 85.40%.

Calculate Normal Distribution in Python:

Make a data frame of the data and calculate Mean and Standard Deviation for calculate Normal Distribution.

Now, we can easily calculate Normal Distribution in Python

So, in calculating the Normal Probability Distribution in Python, we can predict that the probability of the 11th month credit score will be 825 or greater than that is 14.60%, whereas in another case, the probability of the 11th month credit score will be 825 or less than that is 85.40%.

Conclusion:

Normal Distribution is used for calculating parameters. It is represented by the bell curve, where the total area of the curve is 1. Normal Distribution has its use in Finance, Business, Salaries, Blood Pressures, Measurement etc and many other fields.

Here, we have used Normal Distribution to predict Mr. Arjun’s 11th month credit score, and set the target (825). By Normal Distribution we can predict the percentage of possibility to achieve the target.

Calculating Binomial Distribution might be tricky for many but with Dexlab Analytics it won’t be hassle anymore. So, get hold of our STATISTICAL APPLICATION IN R AND PYTHON: CALCULATING BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION blog, to get around all your problems.

 

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Statistical Application in R and Python: Calculating Binomial Distribution

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Statistical Application in R and Python: Calculating Binomial Distribution

In this blog, we will take a look at the Binomial distribution. This blog is among the series of blogs through which you’ll have a vivid idea of the Statistical Application using R and Python. Statistical Application In R & Python: Chapter 1 – Measure Of Central Tendency is the first of such blogs.

The binomial distribution is an extension of the Bernoulli distribution. In Bernoulli, we have only one parameter, i.e. the probability of success.

Now, consider a case where we have “n” number of trials and we want to predict the probability of success from it. This is the Binomial case.

Binomial distribution has two parameters, i.e.: number of trails (n) AND probability of success (p). The mean of the binomial is a product of its two parameters, i.e. n multiplied by p. It is a discrete probability distribution. Here, each trial is assumed to have only two outcomes, either success or failure.

If X be a discrete random variable (taking only non-negative values), it is said to be following binomial distributions with a probability mass function as:-


Application:

A food shop starts a offer for a festive season, They have 12 different baskets, each basket has 5 combos and only 1 of them is non-veg. Find the probability of having 4 or less non-veg combos, if a consumer tries every combos at random.

Since, only 1 out of 5 combos is non-veg, the probability of choose a non-veg combos by random is 1/5 = 0.2

Calculate Binomial Distribution in R:

In R the probability of one non-veg combos choose by random in 5 is 13.28%, whereas the probability of four or less combos choose by random in a twelve baskets is 92.44%

Calculate Binomial Distribution in Python:

In Python the probability of one non-veg combos choose by random in 5 is 16.66%.

Conclusion:-

Binomial Distribution is the process by which we can calculate the probability of success from “n” number of trails. In Binomial Distribution we can find only two outcomes like “Yes” or “No”.

Dexlab Analytics is a pioneering institute of Data Science, with peerless trainers to help you ease your journey with Python Certification, R Programming Certification and Big Data Certification along with numerous other advanced and/or career oriented courses in Computer Science.

 

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A Beginner’s Guide to Learning Data Science Fundamentals

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A Beginner’s Guide to Learning Data Science Fundamentals

I’m a data scientist by profession with an actuarial background.

I graduated with a degree in Criminology; it was during university that I fell in love with the power of statistics. A typical problem would involve estimating the likelihood of a house getting burgled on a street, if there has already been a burglary on that street. For the layman, this is part of predictive policing techniques used to tackle crime. More technically, “It involves a Non-Markovian counting process called the “Hawkes Process” which models for “self-exciting” events (like crimes, future stock price movements, or even popularity of political leaders, etc.)

Being able to predict the likelihood of future events (like crimes in this case) was the main thing which drew me to Statistics. On a philosophical level, it’s really a quest for “truth of things” unfettered by the inherent cognitive biases humans are born with (there are 25 I know of).

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Arguably, Actuaries are the original Data Scientists, turning data in actionable insights since the 18th Century when Alexander Webster with Robert Wallace built a predictive model to calculate the average life expectancy of soldiers going to war using death records. And so, “Insurance” was born to provide cover to the widows and children of the deceased soldiers.

Of course, Alan Turing’s contribution cannot be ignored, which eventually afforded us with the computational power needed to carry out statistical testing on entire populations – thereby Machine Learning was born. To be fair, the history of Data Science is an entire blog of its own. More on that will come later.

The aim of this series of blogs is to initiate anyone daunted by the task of acquiring the very basics of Statistics and Mathematics used in Machine Learning. There are tonnes of online resources which will only list out the topics but will rarely explain why you need to learn them and to what extent. This series will attempt to address this problem adopting a “first principle” approach. Its best to refer back to this article a second time after gaining the very basics of each Topic discussed below:

We will be discussing:

  • Central Limit Theorem
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Probability Theory
  • Point Estimation – MLE’s
  • Confidence Intervals
  • P-values and Significance Test.

This list is by no means exhaustive of the statistical and mathematical concepts you will need in your career as a data scientist. Nevertheless, it provides a solid grounding going into more advanced topics.

Without further due, here goes:

Central Limit Theorem

Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is perhaps one of the most important results in all of Statistics. Essentially, it allows making large sample inference about the Population Mean (μ), as well as making large sample inference about population proportion (p).

So what does this really means?

Consider (X1, X2, X3……..Xn) samples, where n is a large number say, 100. Each sample will have its own respective sample Mean (x̅). This will give us “n” number of sample means. Central Limit Theorem now states:

                                                                                                &

Try to visualise the distribution “of the average of lots of averages”… Essentially, if we have a large number of averages that have been taken from a corresponding large number of samples; then Central Limit theorem allows us to find the distribution of those averages. The beauty of it is that we don’t have to know the parent distribution of the averages. They all tend to Normal… eventually!

Similarly if we were to add up independent and identically distributed (iid) samples, then their corresponding distribution will also tend to a Normal.

Very often in your work as a data scientist a lot of the unknown distributions will tend to Normal, now you can visualise how and more importantly why!

Stay tuned to DexLab Analytics for more articles discussing the topics listed above in depth. To deep dive into data science, I strongly recommend this Big Data Hadoop institute in Delhi NCR. DexLab offers big data courses developed by industry experts, helping you master in-demand skills and carve a successful career as a data scientist.

About the Author: Nish Lau Bakshi is a professional data scientist with an actuarial background and a passion to use the power of statistics to tackle various pressing, daily life problems.

 

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The Impact of Big Data on the Legal Industry

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The Impact of Big Data on the Legal Industry

The importance of big data is soaring. Each day, the profound impact of data analytics can be felt across myriad domains of digital services – courtesy an endless stream of information they generate. Yet, a handful number of people actually ponders over how big data is influencing society’s some of the most important professions, including legal. In this blog, we are going to dig into how big data is impacting the legal profession and transforming the dreary judiciary landscape across the globe.

Importance of Big Data

Information is challenging our legal frameworks. Though technology has transformed lives 360-degree, most of the country’s bigwigs and institutions are still clueless about how to harness the power of big data technology and reap significant benefits. The men in power remain baffled about the role of data. The information age is frantic and the recent court cases highlight that the Supreme Court is facing a tough time taming the big data.

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However, on a positive note, they have identified the reason of slowdown and are joining the bandwagon to upgrade their digital skills and upend tech modernization strategies. Data analytics is a growing area of relevance and it must be leveraged by the nation’s biggest legal authorities and departments. From tracking employee behaviors to scanning through case histories, big data is being employed everywhere. In fact, criminal defense lawyers are of the opinion that big data is altering their courtroom approaches, which have always dominated the trials with a set of certain evidence. Today, the pieces of evidences have become digital than judicial.

Boon for Law Enforcement Officials

The technology of big data has proved to be a welcoming-change for the army of law enforcement officials; the reason being efficiency in prosecuting a large number of criminals in a jiffy. Officials can now scan through piles and piles of data at a super-fast pace and handpick scam artists, hackers and delinquents. Besides law enforcers, police officers are also identifying threats and rounding up criminals before they even plan to get way.

Moreover, the prosecutors are leveraging droves of data to summon up evidence to support their legal arguments in court. That’s helping them win cases! For example, of late, federal prosecutors served a warrant to Microsoft to gain access to their data pool. It was essential for their case.

Big Data Transforming Legal Research

Biggest of all, big data is transforming the intricacies of the legal profession by altering the ways how scholars research and analyze the court proceedings. For example, big data is used to study the Supreme Court’s arguments and we have discovered that arguments are becoming more and more peculiar in their own ways.

Such research tactics will largely lead the show as big data technology tends to become cheaper and more widely popular across the market. In the near future, big data is going to be applied in a plethora of industry verticals and we are quite excited to witness impactful results.

As a matter of fact, you don’t have to wait long to see how big data changes the legal landscape. In this flourishing age of round-the-clock information exchange, the change will take no time.

Now, if you are interested in Big Data Hadoop certification in Delhi, we’ve good news rolling your way. DexLab Analytics provides state-of-the-art big data courses – crafted by industry experts. For more, reach us at <www.dexlabanalytics.com>

 
The blog has been sourced from —  e27.co/how-big-data-is-impacting-the-legal-world-20190408
 

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Big Data Analytics for Event Processing

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Courtesy cloud and Internet of Things, big data is gaining prominence and recognition worldwide. Large chunks of data are being stored in robust platforms such as Hadoop. As a result, much-hyped data frameworks are clouted with ML-powered technologies to discover interesting patterns from the given datasets.

Defining Event Processing

In simple terms, event processing is a typical practice of tracking and analyzing a steady stream of data about events to derive relevant insights about the events taking place real time in the real world. However, the process is not as easy as it sounds; transforming the insights and patterns quickly into meaningful actions while hatching operational market data in real time is no mean feat. The whole process is known as ‘fast data approach’ and it works by embedding patterns, which are panned out from previous data analysis into the future transactions that take place real time.

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Employing Analytics and ML Models

In some instances, it is crucial to analyze data that is still in motion. For that, the predictions must be proactive and must be determined in real-time. Random forests, logistic regression, k-means clustering and linear regression are some of the most common machine learning techniques used for prediction needs. Below, we’ve enlisted the analytical purposes for which the organizations are levering the power of predictive analytics:

Developing the Model – The companies ask the data scientists to construct a comprehensive predictive model and in the process can use different types of ML algorithms along with different approaches to fulfill the purpose.

Validating the Model – It is important to validate a model to check if it is working in the desired manner. At times, coordinating with new data inputs can give a tough time to the data scientists. After validation, the model has to further meet the improvement standards to deploy real-time event processing.

Top 4 Frameworks for ML in Event Processing

Apache Spark

Ideal for batch and streaming data, Apache Spark is an open-source parallel processing framework. It is simple, easy to use and is ideal for machine learning as it supports cluster-computing framework.

Hadoop

If you are looking for an open-source batch processing framework then Hadoop is the best you can get. It not only supports distributed processing of large scale data sets across different clusters of computers with a single programming model but also boasts of an incredibly versatile library.

Apache Storm

Apache Storm is a cutting edge open source, big data processing framework that supports real-time as well as distributed stream processing. It makes it fairly easy to steadily process unbounded streams of data working on real-time.

IBM Infosphere Streams

IBM Infosphere Streams is a highly-functional platform that facilitates the development and execution of applications that channels information in data streams. It also boosts the process of data analysis and improves the overall speed of business decision-making and insight drawing.

If you are interested in reading more such blogs, you must follow us at DexLab Analytics. We are the most reputed big data training center in Delhi NCR. In case, if you have any query regarding big data or Machine Learning using Python, feel free to reach us anytime.

 

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Transforming Construction Industry With Big Data Analytics

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Transforming Construction Industry With Big Data Analytics

Big Data is reaping benefits in the construction industry, especially across four domains – decision-making, risk reduction, budgeting and tracking and management. Interestingly, construction projects involve a lot of data. Prior to big data, the data was mostly siloed, unstructured and gathered on paper.

However, today, the companies are better equipped to utilize the power of big data and employ it in a better way. They can now easily capture data with the help of numerous high-end devices and transform the processes. In a nutshell, the result of implementing big data analytics is positive and everybody involved is enjoying the benefits – namely improved decision-making, higher productivity, better jobsite safety and minimum risks.

Moreover, using the previous data, construction companies now can predict future outcomes and focus on projects that are expected to be successful. All this makes big data the most trending tool of the construction industry and for all the right reasons. The sole challenge is, however, how businesses adopt these robust changes.

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Reduce Costs via Optimization

To stay relevant and maintain a competitive edge, continuous optimization of numerous processes is important. Big data lends a helping hand to ensure the efficacy of such processes by keeping a track of all the processes from first to the very last step – making them quick and productive. With big data technology, companies can easily understand the areas where improvements are required and devise the best strategy.

Needless to say, the primary focus of optimization is to reduce costs and unnecessary downtime. Big Data is by far tackling this concern well.

Worker’s Productivity is Important

Generally, when we discuss productivity in the construction industry, it mostly concerns technology and machines – leaving behind a crucial factor, humans. Big data takes into account each worker’s productivity. It is no big deal to track their work progress. In fact, it will help increase their productivity and boost efficiency.

Furthermore, when a lot of data is at hand, companies can even analyze how their workers are interacting to discover ways to enhance their efficiency levels by replacing tools and technologies.

The Role of Data Sharing

The construction industry is brimming with data. There is so much data here that it needs another capable organization to handle such vast piles of information. Among other things, companies need to share information with their stakeholders. They also need to strategize this data for better accessibility.

Ultimately, the main task of these companies is to eliminate data silos if they really want to savor the potentials of this powerful technology to the fullest. Till date, they have been successful.

In a nutshell, we can say that big data is positively impacting the whole construction industry and is more likely to expand its horizons in the next few years. However, the companies need to learn how to imbibe this cutting edge technology to enjoy its enormous benefits and sail towards the tides of success – because big data is here to stay for long!

DexLab Analytics is a phenomenal Big Data Hadoop institute in Delhi NCR that is well-known for its in-demand skill training courses. If you are thinking of getting your hands on Hadoop certification in Delhi, this is the place to go. For more details, drop by our website.



The blog has been sourced from —  www.analyticsinsight.net/how-big-data-is-changing-construction-industry

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DexLab Analytics is Providing Intensive Demo Sessions in March

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DexLab Analytics is Providing Intensive Demo Sessions in March

The internet has spurred quite a revolution – in several sectors, including education. Interested candidates are at liberty today to learn a vast array of things and garner a humongous pool of knowledge. Online demo sessions further add to the effect. These demo sessions are state-of-the-art and in sync with the industry demands. They are one of the most effective methods of learning and upgrading skills, particularly for the professionals. They transform the learning process and for all the good reasons.

DexLab Analytics is a premier data science training institute that conducts demo sessions, online and offline regularly. These demo sessions are indeed helpful for the students. With an encompassing curriculum, a team of experts and a flexible timing, the realm of demo sessions has become quite interesting and information-laden.  

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Talking of online sessions, they are incredibly on-point and high on flexibility. With daring innovations in technology, no longer do you have to travel for hours to reach your tuition center. Instead, from the confines of your home sweet home, you can gain access to these intensive demo sessions and learn yourselves. Adding to that, the medium of learning is easy and user-friendly. The millennial generation is extremely tech-savvy that leaves no room for difficulties learning online.

Moreover, we boast of top-of-the-line faculty strength, well-versed in the art and science of data science and machine learning. With years of experience and expertise, the consultants working with us are extremely professional and knowledgeable in their respected field of study. Lastly, online demo sessions are great tools for career advancement. While working, you can easily upgrade your skills in your own time – boosting career endeavors further. The flexibility of learning is the greatest advantage.

This month, DexLab Analytics is organizing the following demo sessions; kindly take a note of the date and timing:

  • Demo session on Machine Learning, Deep Learning and Python – Saturday 16th March at 2 PM by industry professionals

  • Demo session on Data Visualization and Reporting – Saturday 23rd March at 11 AM by industry professionals

  • Demo session on Credit Risk Modelling – Saturday 16th March at 2 PM by industry professionals

For more information on big data Hadoop training in Delhi, follow DexLab Analytics.

 

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Enhancing Food Safety with IoT and Big Data Analytics: Here’s how

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Enhancing Food Safety with IoT and Big Data Analytics: Here’s how

We’ve all gone through it – sudden publicity regarding a particular food item being ‘’unsafe and hazardous’’ that sends us rummaging through our kitchen to discard those products. But in this age where everything goes through multiple inspections, how do these errors happen?

The truth is tracking the source of contaminated food and isolating compromised items isn’t all that efficient. This is where big data analytics and IoT can play game-changing roles. These two revolutionary techs have disrupted many industries for good, and promise to positively transform the food sector too.

 IoT for Tracing Shipments

IoT in the form of RFID tags and barcodes are popularly used in the food industry to track shipped food products from source till destination, ensuring retailers acquire the ordered products safely and fulfill consumer demand. However, recently advanced IoT sensors are being used to obtain more detailed information about food products being transported all over the world. These sensors can greatly enhance food safety – they have the capability of identifying minute dust particles and keeping track of environmental conditions like temperature. For example, these sensors can be used for monitoring temperature of frozen chicken being shipped between China and U.S., as above-freezing temperatures will jeopardize their safety. Some sensors even relay data in real-time, making sure optimal conditions affirmed by safety guidelines are always maintained.

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IoT Helping Investigations

Human investigators aren’t always capable of detecting the source of contamination following the discovery of fouled food items. It isn’t humanly possible to locate all the touch points in our modern and highly complex food processes. But IoT technology, with its superior tracking and supervising capabilities, can assist these investigations by spotting the exact point where the contamination occurred.

Addition of Big Data

A side benefit of IoT is the addition of a great deal of data that lay unused in cyberspace. Once all this data is assembled and analyzed, it will help track failure points, identify patterns in food-safety failures and even predict the conditions that cause food spoilage in future.

Assistance for Cultivators

Using big data related to weather and analyzing historical patterns, many tech companies are recognizing potential natural disasters beforehand. This can hugely benefit crop producers. For example, certain environmental conditions can boost the growth of unwanted pests that makes the produce unsafe for consumption. This information can help take necessary preventive measures.

Genetic Indexing

With the help of big data, correlation between bacteria RNA and DNA can be identified, resulting in genetic indexing for particular foods. Firstly, with the help of this information, food inspectors can spot harmful bacteria in food items. After this, IoT can be employed to track down the source. Once the starting point has been identified, more data can be obtained from there about the conditions that foster bacterial growth, allowing such circumstances to be avoided in future.

Improving Storage Safety with IoT and Big Data

Infestation with rats and other unwanted animals is a common problem in food storage facilities. But real-time data coming from IoT sensors combined with historical data on infestations now enables storage units to improve their conditions and protect the environment from such infestations.

Together IoT and Big Data can Promote Better Collaboration

According to WHO estimates, food-borne illnesses affect approximately 600 million people worldwide, out of them around 420,000 people pass away. To improve this condition, everyone working in the food industry must work collaboratively. And the ability of access big data and take help of an advanced technology like IoT will greatly assist this collaboration.

Every industry is going through an overhaul because of big data. In today’s world, big data education offers great power to all professionals. That’s why you must consider the top-grade big data courses in Delhi. Practical-based courses are delivered by industry experts and each student is given individual attention based on his/her level – this is what makes DexLab Analytics a leading Big Data Hadoop institute in Delhi NCR.

 

Reference: www.forbes.com/sites/andrewarnold/2019/02/20/how-iot-and-big-data-analytics-can-make-our-food-safer/#785e1d3d1d45

 

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